What is Shot Quality?

How dangerous a shot is based on where it comes from and how it's taken, measured on a scale from 0 to 1.

What this tells us

When you see a shot quality number, you're looking at the probability that shot goes in, all else equal. A shot from the slot with a clear lane has high quality (maybe 0.08, meaning 8% chance of going in); a shot from the blue line has low quality (maybe 0.02, or 2%). Shot quality tells you whether a team is generating *good* chances or just throwing pucks at the net. A team posting high shot quality is creating scoring opportunities, even if the puck hasn't gone in yet.

Limitations

Shot quality is a backward-looking probability based on historical data — it doesn't account for the goaltender's positioning, the angle of the shot in real time, or whether the shooter is Steven Stamkos or a fourth-line winger. Two identical shots from identical locations can have wildly different outcomes depending on who's taking it, who's in net, and how much time the goaltender had to prepare. That's why we pair shot quality with raw shot counts: volume + quality together tell the real story.

How PuckLab calculates this

PuckLab shot quality is derived from the PuckLab v2 expected goals model (56 features, AUC 0.758). Shot quality specifically represents the model's probability estimate for each shot. Full methodology available on the /methodology page.

Example

A top-line forward generating chances from the high-danger area (the slot and below the goal line) will post average shot quality around 0.055 to 0.070. A defenseman taking point shots will see quality closer to 0.020 to 0.035. A team that's winning the shot quality battle is winning the underlying game, even if the score doesn't reflect it yet.