What is High-Danger Save %?

The percentage of high-quality scoring chances a goaltender stops.

What this tells us

When a team generates a high-danger chance — a shot from the slot or close to the net — how often does the goaltender stop it? A goaltender with a 75% high-danger save percentage is stopping three out of every four prime scoring opportunities. This is a sharper measure of goaltending skill than overall save percentage, because it focuses only on the shots that matter most.

Limitations

High-danger save percentage depends on how your team defines "high-danger." The exact boundaries (distance from net, shooting angle, screen position) vary across analytics sources, which makes it harder to compare goaltenders across different platforms. It also ignores the quality of the defense in front of the goalie — a goaltender facing ten high-danger chances per game is working harder than one facing three, even if both post identical save percentages. Small sample sizes matter here: a goaltender needs a meaningful number of high-danger shots faced before this number stabilizes.

How PuckLab calculates this

PuckLab defines high-danger chances using the PuckLab v2 expected-goals model (56 features, AUC 0.758). High-danger shots are those with an xG value in the top quartile for the season. Full methodology will live on the /methodology page.

Example

A starting goaltender on a strong defensive team might post a high-danger save percentage in the 72–76% range. A backup goaltender or one playing behind a porous defense might sit at 65–70%, either because they're facing tougher chances or stopping fewer of them.