What is Expected Goals For %?

The share of expected goal value your team generates compared to the opponent when this player is on the ice.

What this tells us

When this player is on the ice, xGF% tells you what percentage of the *quality* scoring chances belong to his team versus the other team. A player with 55% xGF% means his team is creating better looks at the net than they're giving up — even if the actual goals haven't fallen yet. It's a forward-looking view of who's controlling the game's most dangerous moments.

Limitations

xGF% depends entirely on the quality model's accuracy — a shot from the hashmarks might be overvalued or undervalued depending on the goaltender, traffic, and other context the model can't always see. It also doesn't account for score effects (teams trailing tend to shoot more and take more chances) or the quality of the player's teammates and opponents. A strong xGF% with weak actual goal results might mean bad luck — or it might mean the player's team isn't finishing chances.

How PuckLab calculates this

PuckLab xG model uses 56 features (shot distance, angle, defenseman proximity, goaltender handedness, rebound likelihood, and others) with AUC 0.758. Full methodology will live on /methodology page.

Example

A top-line forward typically posts an xGF% between 52% and 56%. A defensive forward or depth defenseman might sit closer to 48% to 50%.